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The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in large and persistent losses in economic output, known as scarring. These … Covid on output in Emerging Markets so far and its implications for projections of economic scarring. While Covid has had a … the composition of output losses has been qualitatively different from past last shocks. History suggests that the main …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059169
We construct a high-frequency dataset that combines information on all IMF lending and proxies of monthly economic activity during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-21). Using this novel dataset and standard econometric techniques we find a positive and significant marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059885
The global financial system has shown remarkable resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite a sharp decline in economic activity and the initial financial market upheaval in March 2020. This paper takes stock of the factors that contributed to this resilience, focusing on the role of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059965
This paper draws on a unique data set on the nontraditional systemic liquidity easing measures recently undertaken by many emerging market economies. It offers an empirical analysis of the key determinants affecting the decision to undertake these measures over the period September 2008-March...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677511
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the relationship between sovereigns and banks-the so-called sovereign-bank nexus-in emerging market economies to the fore as bank holdings of domestic sovereign debt have surged. This paper examines the empirical relevance of this nexus to assess how it could...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015060045
We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677365
This paper examines the behavior of bank soundness indicators during episodes of brisk loan growth, using bank-level data for central and eastern Europe and controlling for the feedback effect of credit growth on bank soundness. No evidence is found that rapid loan expansion has weakened banks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677467
economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677570
High oil prices have once again led to large external surpluses of oil exporting countries, similar to the 1970s and 1980s. This paper analyzes the extent to which (i) oil exporters use bank deposits to invest these surpluses, and (ii) banks are lending on these funds to emerging market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677635
Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INTEREST RATES AND BUSINESS CYCLES -- III. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY MODEL WITH THE FINANCIAL ACCELERATOR -- IV. THE EFFECTS OF A 1 PERCENT U.S. INTEREST RATE HIKE -- V. A REPEAT OF THE GLOBAL BOND MARKET ROUT OF 1994? -- VI. WHAT ROLE FOR MONETARY POLICY? --...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691077