This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the term structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band....

Using data for the major currencies from 1973 to 1994, we apply recent tests of asset price volatility to re-examine whether exchange rates have been excessively volatile with respect to the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate and of standard extensions that allow for sticky...

Beginning in 1985 Italy embarked on a path of progressive removal of its system of controls on portfolio investment, a process formally completed with the abolition of all remaining restrictions in 1990. In this paper we review this policy of capital liberalization and integrate the analysis...

We develop a formula for the market value of debt when the borrower’s repayment capacity varies stochastically, and shortfalls are rolled over. The value of a marginal dollar of nominal claim is an S-shaped function of the ratio of the repayment capacity to the amount of nominal debt. Shifts...

We present a model of a “soft” exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate’s current level, thus allowing the rate to move...

This paper presents a method to test the volatility predictions of the textbook asset-pricing exchange rate model, which imposes minimal structure on the data and does not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” Our method builds on existing tests of excess volatility in asset...

This paper studies the fiscal restructuring of the first half of the 1990s in the major industrial countries. It presents and calibrates a simple model of the labor market and integrates it into a multi-country macroeconomic model that takes into account the effects of distortionary taxes. It...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE FEDERAL FUNDS AND THE EURODOLLAR MARKETS -- III. EMPIRICAL STRATEGY -- IV. DATA -- V. PRELIMINARY DATA ANALYSIS -- VI. ESTIMATION AND RESULTS -- A. Step 1: Daily NY Federal Funds vs. London Eurodollars -- B. Step 2: Daily NY Federal Funds vs. NY...

We use daily data on bank reserves and overnight interest rates to document a striking pattern in the high-frequency behavior of the U.S. market for federal funds: depository institutions tend to hold more reserves during the last few days of each “reserve maintenance period,” when the...

We review the main issues that arise in the design of treasury bill auctions and survey the relevant empirical literature. We also provide a detailed description of the actual design of these auctions in a sample of 42 industrial and developing countries.