When the U.S. economy sneezes, do emerging markets catch a cold? We show that economic news, and not just monetary policy, in the United States affects financial conditions in emerging markets. News about U.S. employment has the strongest effects, followed by news about economic activity and...

Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency...

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written communication as clear about 95 percent of instances, which is comparable to, or even...

Forward-looking monetary policy communication has become a key element of flexible inflation-targeting regimes across advanced and emerging market economies. The Reserve Bank of India's implementation of a flexible inflation targeting framework since 2016 has been supported by a broad set of...

In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE MODEL -- III. PARTIAL AND GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS OF FOREIGN AID AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY -- IV. THE OPTIMAL TIMING OF AID AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY -- V. THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MACROECONOMIC POLICIES IN AID-RECEIVING COUNTRIES -- VI. CONCLUSIONS...

We find that inflation, output and the stance of monetary policy do not typically display unusual behavior ahead of asset price busts. By contrast, credit, shares of investment in GDP, current account deficits, and asset prices typically rise, providing useful, if not perfect, leading indicators...