Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE BASIC MODEL SETTING -- III. MODEL 1: A SIMPLE MODEL WITH NON-RANDOM DEFAULT PROBABILITIES -- IV. INTRODUCING THE POISSON APPROXIMATION -- V. MODEL 2: THE MODEL WITH KNOWN PROBABILITIES REVISITED -- VI. MODEL 3: THE MODEL WITH RANDOM DEFAULT...

This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in...

In this paper we assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls in supporting financial stability. We construct a large and granular dataset on prudential and capital flow management measures covering 53 countries during 1996-2016. Conditional on a credit boom, we...

This paper investigates macroprudential policy effects on bank systemic risk and the role of inflation targeting in such effects. Using bank-level data for 45 countries comprising various monetary and exchange rate regimes, our regime-dependent dynamic panel regression results point to...

We develop a stylized balance sheet framework to help identify 'quasi-fiscal' components of central bank crisis interventions and show how sources of fiscal risk are created from both the new claims and how they are funded. Combining central bank balance sheet data with survey evidence from...

Inflation Targeting (IT) has become a prevalent monetary policy framework in the past three decades, as more central banks adopted and maintained price stability as their primary monetary policy mandate. Using a dataset of 68 major advanced countries and emerging markets economies, this paper...

This paper employs a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model to assess the macroeconomic impact of the changes in monetary policy frameworks and the fiscal support in the U.S. and euro area during the pandemic. Moving from a previous target of "below, but close to 2 percent" to a formal symmetric...

We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify...