economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and … by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during … indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … structural and empirical models in a consistent framework using Bayesian and other estimation techniques. We find that money … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. TAXONOMY OF UNDERLYING INFLATION INDICATORS -- III. FEATURES OF THE …

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL … CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix …

We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … inflation. We first discuss recent shifts in micro data from the US, UK, Germany, and Canada. We then zoom in on the US to … explore econometrically whether distributional characteristics help predict future inflation. We find that the shape of the …

This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline … inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market … information. Focusing on core inflation forecast errors in 2021, four factors provide a potential ex post explanation: a stronger …

higher food shares in CPI baskets, fuel intensities, and pre-existing inflation levels were more prone to experience … scores seem to have contained the impact of these shocks better. The effect of the presence of inflation …