length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence …

liquidity, but with potential costs of international financial contagion. An ILOLR can play a useful role in providing … international liquidity and reducing international contagion. …

shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on … Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea … probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market. …

distressed banks create contagion. …

contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not … require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from … structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work …