Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...

While China's growth gathered momentum in 2017, rebalancing was uneven and decelerated along many dimensions reflecting the temporary factors behind the growth pickup. Going forward, rebalancing is expected to proceed as these temporary factors recede, but elevated income inequality and leverage...

Based on the experience of the Bank of Albania, the paper proposes a framework to estimate the interest rate lower bound in small, open, and euroized economies. The paper introduces a stylized monitoring tool to assess the unintended consequences of low policy rates. The paper is the first...

This paper examines Tajikistan’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility. Strengthened fiscal discipline and tighter monetary policy have reduced inflation from 40 percent in 2001 to 5.6 percent in 2004. Strong growth in tax revenues and...

This paper discusses a request from Cameroon for Disbursement Under the Rapid-Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility (RAC-ESF). Despite improvements, the economy of Cameroon remains vulnerable to commodity shocks, especially from oil; and reducing poverty is a challenge. The...

This paper identifies and documents the properties of output gap recessions and recoveries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) during the 1980 to 2008 period. It goes on to investigate the key determinants of the recoveries. The duration of MENAP countries’ recessions and...

Sudan has been adversely affected by the global crisis through a sharp decline in oil receipts. Executive Directors welcomed the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), which aimed to reduce the fiscal deficit, tighten monetary stance, and increase exchange rate flexibility. Directors urged the...