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Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M.; … - 2020 - This version: February 2020
We develop a new dynamic factor model that allows us to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170616
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Emerging and developing economies : ten years after the global recession
Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2020
, they now appear less well placed to cope with the substantial downside risks facing the global economy. In many EMDEs, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012175348
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Potential growth : a global database
Çelik, Sinem Kılıç; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska - 2023
Potential growth - the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment - is a critical driver …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250768
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Is a global recession imminent?
Guénette, Justin Damien; Kose, M. Ayhan; Sugawara, Naotaka - 2022
activity and policies and presents plausible scenarios for the global economy in 2022-24. We report three major findings. First … happened recently. Second, the global economy is in the midst of one of the most internationally synchronous episodes of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013383374
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Understanding the global drivers of inflation : how important are oil prices?
Ha, Jongrim; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; … - 2023
typical economy. Oil price shocks accounted for only about 4 percent of inflation variation, but they had a statistically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013488859