We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define ""growth spells:"" periods of … high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to … be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find that growth duration is positively related to …

favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth … structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects …

growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has … suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically … underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts …

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR … Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by … external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to …