We propose a novel framework to analyze how policy-makers can manage risks to the median projection and risks specific to the tail of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. By combining a quantile regression of GDP growth with a vector autoregression, we show that monetary and macroprudential...

A number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these...

This paper empirically assesses the effectiveness of the Bank of Canada's term Purchase and Resale Agreement (PRA) facility in reducing short-term bank funding pressures, as measured by the CDOR-OIS spread. It examines the behaviour of this spread around both term PRA announcement dates and term...

The goal of this paper is to investigate what type of information from Bank of Canada communication statements or the market commentary based on these statements has a significant effect on the volatility or level of returns in a short-term interest rate market. Two different text mining methods...

Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update...

We model bank management actions in severe stress test conditions using a game-theoretical framework. Banks update their balance sheets to strategically maximize risk-adjusted returns to shareholders given three regulatory constraints and feedback effects related to fire sales, interactions of...

We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Our measures of Fed Chairs' emotions expressed in words, voice and facial expressions are created using machine learning. Increases in the Chair's...

Central banks make public the results of open market operations (OMOs), which they use to adjust the liquidity available to the financial system to maintain the short-term borrowing rate in the range compatible with achieving their monetary policy objectives. This paper shows that such...

This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a...

We consider boundedly rational agents who do not plan over the infinite future but make trading plans at a finite, arbitrary horizon. We investigate the role of that horizon in the price dynamics of an asset in a Lucas tree model. We then design a laboratory experiment to test our theoretical...