This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. SOME BACKGROUND ON GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE -- III. MODELING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE -- IV. HOW WILL DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AFFECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY? -- V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS -- VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS -- Appendix: The...