The effectiveness of recent fiscal stimulus packages significantly depends on the assumption of non-Ricardian savings behavior. We show that, under the same assumption, fiscal deficits can have worrisome implications if they turn out to be permanent. First, if they occur in large countries they...

We use a general-equilibrium model to explain the rise in global trade and payments imbalances since the mid-1990s, and then to construct adjustment paths to a steady state. Assuming that the shocks giving rise to the imbalances do not suddenly reverse, simulated movements in the U.S. trade...

Intro -- Contents -- I. BACKGROUND -- II. A THEORETICAL MODEL OF THE TRADE BALANCE -- A. The Consumer's Problem -- B. The Firm's Problem -- C. The Government's Problem -- D. The Bank's Problem -- E. Import and Export Market Clearing -- F. The Trade Balance -- G. The Exchange Rate -- III. THE...