forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment …

-- X. LONG-RUN FORECASTING PERFORMANCE FOR G-7 ECONOMIES -- XI. COMPARISON OF WEO AND CONSENSUS FORECASTS -- XII. FORECAST … FORECASTS -- IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE -- VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED …

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts …. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the …