Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. THE MAIN STYLIZED FACTS: AGGREGATE DATA -- III. THE MAIN STYLIZED FACTS: BILATERAL DATA -- IV. CAPITAL FLOWS AND EXTERNAL ADJUSTMENT -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- REFERENCES.

This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their...