Seit seiner Einführung am 1. Januar 1999 hat der Euro über ein Viertel seines Außenwertes verloren. Nachdem alle auf makroökonomischen Fundamentalfaktoren basierenden Ansätze die andauernde Schwäche der europäischen Währung nicht zu erklären vermochten, hat die These, dass die Schwäche...

Following the twin crises of sovereign debt and COVID-19, the ECB risks being stuck in a situation of fiscal dominance, in which monetary policy is subordinated to the needs of finance ministers. A strong post-COVID-19 recovery may increase inflationary pressures, requiring a shift towards a...

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...

This paper examines the drivers, and reestimates the size of shadow economies in Europe, with a focus on the emerging economies, and recommends policies to increase formality. The size of shadow economies declined across Europe in recent years but remains significant, especially in Eastern...