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The impact of political uncertainty on asset prices : the case of United Kingdom's EU membership referendum

Hanna, Joseph; Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; MacDonald, Margaux - 2021

How did expectations of the outcome of the United Kingdom's (UK) referendum on European Union (EU) membership in 2016 affect prices in financial markets? We study this using high frequency data from betting and financial markets. We find that a one percentage point increase in the probability of...