The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring ""high-inflation"" EU countries in line with ""low-inflation"" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has...

This paper looks at theoretical and empirical issues associated with the operation of fiscal stabilizers within an economy. It argues that such stabilizers operate most effectively at a national, rather than local, level. As differing cycles across regions tend to offset each other for the...

The success of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will depend on the stability of the euro. The monetary policy framework is yet to be decided, but is likely to involve either money or inflation targeting. Stochastic simulations compare the outcomes for major macroeconomic and financial...

The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of a global saving/investment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a...

Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also...

Evaluations of European monetary integration using model simulations have given conflicting results, and the paper attempts to elucidate the reasons for the differences. Several features stand out: how to model realignments; how monetary policy is set for individual countries or for Europe; and...

This paper examines whether the clarity of central bank communication about inflation has changed with the economic environment. We use readability statistics and content analysis to study the clarity of communication on the inflation outlook by seven central banks between 1997 and 2010....

The paper considers the issue of whether a supranational fiscal policy in Europe is needed, and, if so, what responsibilities it should undertake. The literature on endogenous growth and the principle of subsidiarity suggest that such a policy should be limited to externalities or economies of...

The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real...

Stage 2 of monetary union in the Europe is to involve greater monetary cooperation; the paper examines the case for using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as a vehicle for that cooperation. First, the...