Showing 1 - 10 of 43
This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251959
This paper argues that if policymakers seek to enhance global liquidity, then the international community must provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461279
In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471509
Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short … benefits and facilitate the use of powerful fiscal policy tools even in a liquidity trap. In this paper, we consider an … alternative approach that has been suggested for use in a liquidity trap, a scheduled increase in consumption tax rates. We find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468404
Routine publication of the forecast path for the policy interest rate (i.e. 'conventional forward guidance') would improve the transparency of monetary policy. It would also improve policy effectiveness through its influence on expectations, particularly when there is a risk of low inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715420
We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the ''three pillars macroeconomic policy framework'': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402509
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009620965
, Europe and Japan allowing for fiscal multipliers to vary across recessions and booms. We also estimate ex ante probabilities …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395687
during the period of Japan's bubble economy and subsequent stagnation. The yen experienced epic gyrations over that period … the price of oil. Since the mid-1990s, the yen's real exchange rate has generally followed a depreciating trend and Japan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463831
We show that the when one takes into account the global equilibrium ramifications of an unwinding of the US current account deficit, currently estimated at 5.4% of GDP, the potential collapse of the dollar becomes considerably larger--more than 50% larger--than our previous estimates (Obstfeld...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467820