This paper provides the first systematic study of how minimum wage policies in China affect firm employment over the … negative impact on employment, with an estimated elasticity of -0.1. Furthermore, we find a heterogeneous effect of the minimum … wage on employment which depends on the firm's wage level. Specifically, the minimum wage has a greater negative impact on …

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the … forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun‘s Law?), monetary and … dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split …

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent … with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun … coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various …

This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty … the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features … of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation …