This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and...

Countries compiling quarterly estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) often use alternative approaches simultaneously. This may result in the publication of different measures of quarterly GDP and discrepancies between these measures. Such discrepancies are unavoidable, unless reconciliation...

This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is...

This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It...

The paper develops a tractable way to incorporate the micro structure of dual models of international trade into a standard class of dynamic open-economy macro models. In the process, it develops the concept of a dynamic factor price equalization set and an integrated intertemporal equilibrium....

We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of...

This paper investigates the medium-term behavior of output following banking crises, and its association with pre- and post-crisis conditions and policies. We find that output tends to be depressed substantially following banking crises, with no rebound to the precrisis trend. However, growth...

Output drops are usually associated with major disruption for the residents of affected countries, both directly and often through ensuing, prolonged growth slowdowns. Using a century of data, we document that output drops are more frequent in countries at a lower stage of economic development....