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Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines...
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The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its … GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009373
This paper uses the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) methodology to examine how macrofinancial conditions affect the growth outlook …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154738
We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154744
improved since the mid-1980s; that private investment is mostly influenced by the risk of expropriation, the degree of civil … liberty, and the degree of independence of the bureaucracy; and that economic growth is affected by the risk of expropriation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400780
It has been argued that higher levels of inflation lead to greater uncertainty about future inflation and to greater dispersion of relative prices. In either case, inflation could reduce the efficiency of market prices in coordinating economic activities. This paper shows that the rise of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403412
This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It … growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399796
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