Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater ""procedural"" flexibility in the Pact''s implementation may improve welfare. Procedural flexibility designates the enforcer''s room to apply judgment on underlying policies and...