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The U.K. Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, and EMU Entry

Samiei, Hossein - 2000

In the context of the U.K. government’s EMU entry condition of cyclical convergence, this paper (i) provides further evidence suggesting that historically the U.K.’s business cycle has been more volatile than, and relatively independent of, the cycles in the euro-area countries; and (ii)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401449

Analysis of the U.S. Business Cycle with a Vector-Markov-Switching Model

Kontolemis G., Zenon - 1999

This paper identifies turning points for the U.S. business cycle using different time series. The model, a multivariate Markov-Swiching model, assumes that each series is characterized by a mixture of two normal distributions (a high and low mean) with switching determined by a common Markov...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401046

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Blanchard, Olivier - 2015

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418077

Concordance in Business Cycles

McDermott, C. John - 2000

We study the properties of a test that determines whether two time series comove. The test computes a simple nonparametric statistic for “concordance,” which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399826

Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Savings and the Current Account

Ostry, Jonathan David - 1992

The relationship between current account developments and changes in the macroeconomic environment remains a key issue in open economy macroeconomics. This paper extends the standard intertemporal optimizing model of the current account to incorporate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396005

Output Fluctuations and Monetary Shocks : Evidence From Colombia

Reinhart, Vincent - 1991

quantities with respect to permanent movements in the money stock; and the short-run sensitivity of output to inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396328

Credit market imperfection and sectoral asymmetry of Chinese business cycle

Zhang, Yuanyan Sophia - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009425655

Overborrowing, financial crises and "macroprudential" policy

Bianchi, Javier; Mendoza, Enrique G. - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009487097

Capital gaps, risk dynamics, and the macroeconomy

Lipinsky, Fabian T.; Miescu, Mirela S. - 2020

Motivated by the increasing interest in analyzing the links between the financial sector and the real economy, we develop a macro-financial structural model with two novel features. First, we include idiosyncratic and aggregate risk in a tractable general equilibrium model. This allows us to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012391995

Managing macrofinancial risk

Adrian, Tobias; Vitek, Francis - 2020

We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism, to support the joint analysis of monetary and macroprudential policy. This state dependent conditional heteroskedasticity mechanism specifies the conditional variances of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300643