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Aiyar, Shekhar; Voigts, Simon - 2019

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632

How informative are real time output gap estimates in Europe?

Kangur, Alvar; Kirabaeva, Koralai; Natal, Jean-Marc; … - 2019

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755

Hysteresis in labor markets? : evidence from professional long-term forecasts

Bluedorn, John Christopher; Leigh, Daniel - 2019

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008

Measuring output gap : is it worth your Time?

Chen, Jiaqian; Górnicka, Lucyna - 2020

We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152

Productivity growth and structural reform in Bulgaria : restarting the convergence engine

Mitra, Pritha; Pouvelle, Cyril - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009615565

The lack of convergence of Latin-America compared with CESEE : is low investment to blame?

Bakker, Bas B.; Ghazanchyan, Manuk; Ho, Alex; Nanda, Vibha - 2020

In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252005

What happens if central banks misdiagnose a slowdown in potential output growth?

Bakker, Bas B. - 2019

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103759

Macroeconomic consequences of tariffs

Furceri, Davide; Ahmed Hannan, Swarnali; Ostry, … - 2019

, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result …. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001500

Deepening the EU's single market for services

Ebeke, Christian; Frie, Jan-Martin; Rabier, Louise - 2019

The services sector is increasingly important for the euro area economy, but productivity growth in the sector has …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154992

Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity : Evidence From Indonesia

Amiti, Mary - 2005

This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we … distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods relative to lower tariffs on intermediate inputs …. Lower output tariffs can produce productivity gains by inducing tougher import competition whereas cheaper imported inputs …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400616