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We develop a theoretical model that shows that in the near future, the monetary policies of some key central banks in advanced economies (AEs) will have two dimensions-changes in short-term policy rates and balance sheet adjustments. This will affect emerging market economies (EMs), especially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011705338
We use a Global VAR model to study spillovers from the Bank of Japan's quantitative and qualitative easing (QQE) on emerging Asia.1 Our main result is that, despite an appreciation of their currencies vis-a-vis the yen, the impact on emerging Asia's GDP tended to be positive and significant. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011711367
Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks-a result which the paper terms the 'monsoon effect.' Economies with higher trade integration and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012102097
There have been several episodes of financial market ""contagion"" in the 1990s. Is contagion driven by herd behavior …? Does it reflect fundamental economic linkages between countries? Or are episodes of contagion driven by investor learning … spillover of shocks following the bond market developments in Hong Kong SAR in 1997. Our results suggest that this contagion, at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399724
Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are … capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrate that phenomenon, and some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401307
The estimated spillover of the global crisis to emerging market (EM) economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) indicates that nearly two-thirds of the increased financial stress in MENA EM countries after the Lehman shock is attributable to direct or indirect spillovers of financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404332
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009572531
This paper focuses on financial interlinkages within Europe and potential contagion channeled through these … channels of contagion through financial linkages; and assesses the magnitude of cross-border exposures between emerging and … regional contagion that could help identify the likely pressure points and capture potential spillover effects and propagation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404299
This paper presents a new theory of asset pricing intended to address why other developing country equity markets responded so strongly to the Mexican devaluation, while the world’s major stock markets were unmoved. This phenomenon can be explained if investors follow a two-step portfolio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397925
Within a broad framework for analyzing portfolio capital flows to developing countries, the paper undertakes a comparative analysis of equity markets in six Middle Eastern countries. The analysis, based primarily on a range of quantitative indicators, identifies the principal characteristics of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398001