Showing 1 - 10 of 13
We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170152
In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103759
, to economically and statistically significant declines in domestic output and productivity. Tariff increases also result …. The effects on output and productivity tend to be magnified when tariffs rise during expansions, for advanced economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001500
This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we … distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods relative to lower tariffs on intermediate inputs …. Lower output tariffs can produce productivity gains by inducing tougher import competition whereas cheaper imported inputs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400616
This paper examines the extent to which developing countries benefit from intersectoral factor transfers by specifying the impact and determinants of sectoral changes and of the degree of dualism (or allocation inefficiency) in a dual economy model. Conditions under which factor reallocation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399960
This paper provides empirical evidence on the response of labor productivity to the arrival of new inventions. The … analysis shows that labor productivity may temporarily fall below trend after technological progress. However, the effects on … productivity differ between the pre- and post-World War II periods. The pre-war period shows evidence of a productivity slowdown as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401355
Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403910