Showing 1 - 10 of 438
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA) database, we conduct the most comprehensive evaluation of IMF forecasts to date for countries in times of crises. We examine 29 macroeconomic variables in terms of bias,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932572
This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155002
This paper studies the dynamics of external accounts during 278 economic recession events in the past 60 years and sheds light on key factors that shape these patterns. Economic recessions trigger highly-persistent increases in the current account, driven by an initial, sharp decline in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012605536
In this paper, we discuss whether and how bank lobbying can lead to regulatory capture and have real consequences through an overview of the motivations behind bank lobbying and of recent empirical evidence on the subject. Overall, the findings are consistent with regulatory capture, which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103556
This paper assesses whether and how financial development triggers the occurrence of banking crises. It builds on a database that includes financial development as well as financial access, depth and efficiency for almost 100 countries. Through estimation of a dynamic logit panel model, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021789
We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging … markets. More specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to VIX movements and capital … liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky forms of credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252052
This paper describes how behavioral elements are relevant to financial supervision, regulation, and central banking. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011905870
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389956
Drawing on the 2016 update of the IMF's Central Bank Legislation Database, this paper examines differences in central bank legal frameworks before and after the Global Financial Crisis. Examples from select countries show that many central bank laws have undergone changes in objectives,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704406
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011763625