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News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618558
several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402661
) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402873
This paper studies whether labor market mismatch played an important role for labor market dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. We apply the framework of Sahin and others (2014) to the US and the UK to measure misallocation between job seekers and vacancies across sectors until the third...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170581
We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012299321
The IMF provides training to its membership in its core areas of expertise mainly through its Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) or formerly the IMF Institute (INS). This paper looks at the methods that ICD used to evaluate this activity and analyzes the data collected over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011866536
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009425653
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used for 'nowcasting' the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445607
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389823