The paper evaluates the 24-month ahead inflation forecasting performance of various indicators of underlying inflation … and structural models. The inflation forecast errors resulting from model misspecification are larger than the errors …) overperform other measures over the monetary policy horizon and are leading indicators of headline inflation. Trimmed means …

has been de-emphasized, developments in the monetary aggregates remain an important indicator of future inflation. The … exchange rate and import prices are also relevant, particularly for inflation in the manufacturing sector …

Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper … suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where … money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad …

gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct …

drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with …