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Abstract In this paper we ask whether countries can influence their exposure to changes in global financial conditions. Specifically, we show that even though we can model cross-country capital flows via a global factor that closely tracks changes in global financial conditions, there is a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518283
All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011763625
Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting … with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage. A large fraction … of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms' expected default. Our results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012485947
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009486305
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618590
Despite welfare and poverty-reducing benefits for recipient households, remittance inflows have been shown to entail macroeconomic challenges; producing Dutch Disease-type effects through their upward (appreciation) pressure on real exchange rates, reducing the quality of institutions, delaying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445365
economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary … credit growth. Weak credit demand and underdeveloped financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401200
procyclicality of bank credit dynamics to the private sector and contain systemic risk. Reserve requirements, in particular, have … new cross-country evidence on how they influence real private bank credit growth. Our results show that these instruments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396432
We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796309
Estimates of output gaps continue to play a key role in assessments of the stance of business cycles. This paper uses three approaches to examine the historical record of output gap measurements and their use in surveillance within the IMF. Firstly, the historical record of global output gap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392643