Showing 1 - 10 of 117
-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022008
We study the transmission of monetary shocks across euro-area countries using a dynamic factor model and high-frequency identification. We develop a methodology to assess the degree of heterogeneity, which we find to be low in financial variables and output, but significant in consumption,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012252067
the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103632
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103755
This paper evaluates the performance of two alternative policy rules, a forward-looking rule and a spontaneous adjustment rule, under alternative inflation targets, in terms of output losses in a macroeconomic model, using European Union data. The simulations suggest that forward-looking rules...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400852
This paper estimates the importance of the cost channel of monetary policy in a New Keynesian model of the business cycle. A model with nominal rigidities is extended by assuming that a fraction of firms need to borrow money to pay their wage bill. Hence, monetary policy tightenings increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401278
levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and … renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251398
-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418077
While there is growing evidence of persistent or even permanent output losses from financial crises, the causes remain unclear. One candidate is intangible capital - a rising driver of economic growth that, being non-pledgeable as collateral, is vulnerable to financial frictions. By sheltering...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170156
This paper deals with hysteresis in the desired equilibrium exchange rate (DEER) arising from misalignment. When the … formal expression for this hysteresis effect in the DEER, studies the convergence properties of a system in which the …. Finally, the paper derives and applies rules of thumb for computing the hysteresis effect when considering the rate of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396472