-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

Increases in German core inflation following the 2007 VAT hike were smaller than expected, leading to speculation about … small increase upon implementation. We find that core inflation rose by 0.36 percentage point in the run up and by a further … in core inflation in 2006-07 at an estimated pass-through of 73 percent. Most of the increase in 2006 was of general …

between the nominal interest rate and inflation in the postwar period in the five major industrial countries, utilizing … rate and the inflation rate as between the two groups of countries are reflected in the time series properties of the … inflation rates, which are, in turn, partly attributable to the different extent to which monetary authorities accommodated …