.S. output-inflation process, which implies that excess demand conditions are much more inflationary than excess supply … overheats because this will necessitate a severe tightening in monetary conditions in order to reestablish inflation control … negative if inflation is to be stationary. The paper also shows that a failure to account for this important implication of …

times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

among inflation, unemployment, wage growth, and output fluctuations. At the industry level, the paper compares the …

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis … forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and …

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …

.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry … price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve's preferred … measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is …

regarding the strength of international transmission of inflation. This paper uses a number of econometric techniques to assess … the extent of the link between inflation rates between China and the United States and Japan. It finds only limited … empirical evidence at the aggregate level for consumer price inflation in China leading to price changes in the United States …