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Recoveries that occur in the absence of credit growth are often dubbed miracles and named after mythical creatures. Yet these are not rare animals, and are not always miracles. About one out of five recoveries is "creditless", and average growth during these episodes is about a third lower than...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014412193
Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan''s growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan''s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402213
The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402855
The purpose of this lecture is to look beyond the complex events that characterize the global financial and economic crisis, identify the basic mechanisms, and infer the policies needed to resolve the current crisis, as well as the policies needed to reduce the probability of similar events in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403169
The paper discusses the fiscal impact of the Great Recession of 2007-08 on state and local governments in the United States. It documents the sharp decline in tax revenue and discusses how states responded to close the budget gaps in order to obey the balanced budget provisions. It highligts the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395732
One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610732
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009488600
The Spanish labor market is not working: the unemployment rate is structurally very high; wages are not very responsive … to labor market conditions, causing a high cyclicality of unemployment; and the labor market is highly dual. Compared … bringing the unemployment rate closer to the EU15 average. The key reform needed to reduce the share of temporary workers is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402909
This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers' unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker's observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012155058
using macroeconomic data on employment, unemployment, participation, and (for Canada) migration and real wages. We find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402300