The United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper uses a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model to provide an analytical assessment of five key...

This paper investigates whether a regional bloc would enlarge or remain stagnant in size using a model where enlargement is the endogenous outcome of the interaction between the supply of and demand for membership. We show that a maximum size of the bloc exists beyond which the regional...

This paper analyzes export performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) using a gravity model applied to panel data. It addresses two questions: (i) are there significant unexploited export markets for the MENA region?; and (ii) have integration efforts with the EU since the mid-1990s...

This paper assesses changes in synchronization of real activity and financial market integration in Western Europe and evaluates their implications for financial stability. We find increased synchronization of real activity since the early 1980s and increased equity markets integration since the...

This paper considers the impact on trade of preferential arrangements in Europe since the 1950s. Using a first difference version of the gravity model, we find that the EEC and EFTA altered the pattern of international trade. We also find evidence of trade diversion in several cases, notably...

The economic effects of German unification are first discussed in the context of a global saving/investment model. Next, simulations of MULTIMOD are presented, suggesting for the FRG an initial increase in long-term real interest rates equal to 3/4 of a percentage point, increased output, a...

The financial crisis, originated from the collapse of US housing markets in 2008, reverberates around the world. Its destructive force was felt nowhere more keenly than Western Europe. Indeed, it continues to mire in financial volatility as the debt problem contagiously spreads around the...