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between the nominal interest rate and inflation in the postwar period in the five major industrial countries, utilizing … rate and the inflation rate as between the two groups of countries are reflected in the time series properties of the … inflation rates, which are, in turn, partly attributable to the different extent to which monetary authorities accommodated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395917
We update the widely used banking crises database by Laeven and Valencia (2008, 2010) with new information on recent and ongoing crises, including updated information on policy responses and outcomes (i.e. fiscal costs, output losses, and increases in public debt). We also update our dating of...
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This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012671036
Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries' external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and emerging economies and new database on the IIP's currency composition, we find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012517927
In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612343