Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness of China's current investment levels. It finds that China's capital-to-output ratio is within the range of other emerging markets, but its economic growth rates stand out, partly due to a surge in investment over the last...

Now close to 50 percent of GDP, this paper assesses the appropriateness of China’s current investment levels. It finds that China’s capital-to-output ratio is within the range of other emerging markets, but its economic growth rates stand out, partly due to a surge in investment over the...

Historically high household debt in several economies is calling for a deleveraging, but according to some economists, this adjustment can slow GDP growth by weighing on consumption. Using a sample of advanced and emerging market economies, this paper finds evidence of a negative relationship...

This paper develops a time series model for aggregate consumption to predict the U.S. personal saving rate. It then uses the model to test whether there has been a structural break in consumption behavior because of the 2008 financial crisis. Before the crisis, the personal saving rate was...

The paper uses a combination of micro-level datasets to document the rise of income polarization-what some have referred to as the 'hollowing out' of the income distribution-in the United States, since the 1970s. While in the initial decades more middle-income households moved up, rather than...

This paper studies the main determinants of the sharp decline in Colombia’s private saving rate which accompanied the steep deterioration of the country’s external current account deficit in the 1990s. The paper rejects current arguments pointing to a consumption boom and corporate behavior...

This paper analyzes anew the relationship between taxation and the household saving rate. On the basis of standard savings and tax revenue data from, it provides compelling and robust empirical evidence of a powerful impact of taxes on household savings. In particular, income taxes are shown to...