times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously …

.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry … price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve's preferred … measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is …

Inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's target for much of the past 20 years, creating worries that inflation … forecasters, household and business surveys, and the market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) to estimate long …-run inflation expectations. These have fallen notably in the past few years (to roughly 1.9 percent for CPI inflation, well below …

among inflation, unemployment, wage growth, and output fluctuations. At the industry level, the paper compares the …

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis … forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and …

This paper examines some of the factors that have been influential in keeping inflation low in the United States during … role of labor costs and import prices in determining price inflation …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon … explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price …