This paper suggests a conceptual framework that can serve as a basis for the design of growth-oriented adjustment programs. The two building blocks of the model are the well-known monetary approach to the balance of payments, and a variant of the open-economy neoclassical growth model. The...

This paper extends the basic monetary model that underlies the monetary approach to the balance of payments to allow for the endogenous determination of the short-run growth rate of the economy. In the extended model domestic credit expansion affects not only the balance of payments but also the...

This paper develops new error assessment methods to evaluate the performance of debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) for low-income countries (LICs) from 2005-2015. We find some evidence of a bias towards optimism for public and external debt projections, which was most appreciable for LICs with...

This paper develops a model merging the monetary approach to the balance of payments and a neoclassical growth model into a unified framework in which inflation, growth, and the balance of payments are simultaneously determined. The empirical part of the paper presents estimates of the key...

Uncertainty about the export earnings accruing to a country (sometimes referred to as export instability) is an important source of macroeconomic uncertainty in many developing countries. Theory predicts that countries should react to increases in this form of uncertainty by increasing their...

The paper deals with the two parts of the short-run adjustment problem in developing countries: the improvement of the current account and the reduction of inflation, the main cause in both cases being usually a fiscal deficit. It is shown how the two parts are related. Distinctions are made...

Capacity development is one of the IMF's core activities. Its impact is monitored through a Results-Based Management framework. Using for the first time the resulting dataset, the paper investigates how the likelihood of achieving targeted outcomes correlates with macroeconomic conditions and...

This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and current experiences of various countries vis-a-vis structural transformation with a focus on the roles of...

This paper deals with the design of quantitative exercises relating objectives for the growth of national income over the medium term to key macroeconomic policy variables. It focuses on the roles of capital formation, saving, and total factor productivity in the process of economic growth and...