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Why Has Inflation in the United States Remained so Low? : Reassessing the Importance of Labor Costs and the Price of Imports

Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - 1999

This paper examines some of the factors that have been influential in keeping inflation low in the United States during … role of labor costs and import prices in determining price inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401114

Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Leigh, Daniel - 2002

Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify … indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic … indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401315

Inflation dynamics and the Great Recession

Ball, Laurence M.; Mazumder, Sandeep - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009425658

Evaluating GDP forecasting models for Korea

Zeng, Li - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009486193

Nowcasting GDP : a scalable approach using DFM, machine learning and novel data, applied to European economies

Dauphin, Jean-François; Dybczak, Kamil; Maneely, Morgan; … - 2022

This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF's European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013169983

Deus ex machina? : a framework for macro forecasting with machine learning

Bolhuis, Marijn A.; Rayner, Brett - 2020

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use several machine learning models to predict real output growth with lower forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251288

Predictive density aggregation : a model for global GDP growth

Caselli, Francesca; Grigoli, Francesco; Lafarguette, Romain - 2020

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251413

How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts : Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth

Loungani, Prakash - 2000

This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399809

Evaluating GDP Forecasting Models for Korea

Zeng, Li - 2011

This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402206

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? : An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Ball, Laurence M. - 2014

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014394299

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