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, robust measures of central tendency are likely to outperform the mean or standard measures of “core” inflation as indicators … of generalized inflation. The analysis also supports the use of geometric averaging in CPI construction and the targeting … of the geometric mean inflation rate rather than the Laspeyres mean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399788
How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? We find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397573
This paper examines the relations between fluctuations in real exchange rates among the major currencies and fluctuations in real commodity prices. Increased exchange rate volatility calls for a better understanding of these relations. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic study of those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398636
The role of the international commodity market in transmitting disturbances is considered in a model that incorporates commodities as an input in production. The analysis employs a three-country framework: a liquidity-constrained commodity supplier and two industrial countries that import the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396018
Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed weakness. The appropriate policy response to a terms of trade shock depends...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396445
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the claim that, in a popular class of theoretical models, the price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112131
In models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating …-maximizing central bank should adopt flexible headline inflation targeting a target for headline CPI inflation with some weight on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397170
The effects of taxation on the general price level have traditionally been regarded as reflecting monetary policy, rather than fiscal factors. This view abstracted from the possible endogeneity of monetary expansion with respect to tax hikes, and from the effects which taxation may have on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398726
This paper examines the performance of different new open economy macroeconomic models in explaining the exchange rate pass-through in a wide range of prices. Quantitative versions of different models are used to derive the dynamic response of various prices to an exchange rate shock. Predicted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399721
Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396014