explores how much of these large movements reflected shifts in (i) global risk aversion (ii) country-specific risks, directly … in the crisis, the surge in global risk aversion was a significant factor influencing sovereign spreads, while recently … Spain, as the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk and long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper …

. This negative impact is dampened in cases with past periods of high inflation. There is also some evidence that …

We augment a linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a tractable endogenous risk mechanism … their conditional distributions. In particular, the model matches the key stylized facts of growth at risk. Accounting for …

frequencies react positively to shocks to leverage, inflation, global financial stress, and global excess liquidity, and …

Brazil and Mexico. Using vector error-correction models, we find that the U.S. 10-year bond yield was a key driver of long … in Mexico. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that yields in both countries temporarily overshot the values predicted …

This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics … agents'' understanding of policy reasoning, could bring about less volatile inflation and interest rate dynamics, and afford …