This paper examines the role of Japan against that of China in the exchange rate regime in East Asia in light of growing interest in forming a currency union in the region. The analysis suggests that currency unions with China tend to generate higher average welfare gains for East Asian...

Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also...

Two issues are discussed. The first is which countries might benefit from entry into EMU before the millennium. Germany and her immediate neighbors appear the most likely to gain; however, our knowledge is too uncertain to say whether all, some, or no countries would reap net economic benefits....

This paper examines the credibility of the exchange rate policy pursued by the Belgian monetary authorities of pegging the Belgian franc to a narrow fluctuation band around the deutsche mark, in the context of the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. Simple interest rate...

Under free capital mobility, a high-inflation country pursuing a nonaccommodating exchange rate policy will have higher real interest rates than its lower-inflation trading partners as long as that policy is not credible. If the policy gains credibility prior to inflation convergence, the sign...

This paper investigates the issue of monetary interdependence among members of the European Monetary System over the period 1979–91 and the leadership role attributed to the German central bank in the process of monetary integration, and looks for possible changes in central banks’...

What is the extent of currency diversification in the international monetary system? How has it evolved over time? In this paper, we quantify the degree of currency diversification using regression methods of currency co-movements to determine the extent to which national currencies across the...

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and...

This paper considers the extent to which the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) meets the criteria for a common currency area. NAFTA is compared with the EC, a regional grouping for which initial plans for a monetary union are already in place. Most of the anticipated benefits from a...

This paper studies the effect of instrumental and institutional stabilization of exchange rate volatility on the integration of goods markets. Rather than using data on volume of trade, this paper employs a 3-dimensional panel of prices of 95 very disaggregated goods (e.g., light bulbs) in 83...