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Korea's growth prospects : overcoming demographics and COVID-19

Swiston, Andrew - 2021

Korea's economy has leaped to high-income status thanks to several decades of sustained high growth. However, population aging and shifts in global demand provide headwinds for future growth and Korea now faces the effects of COVID-19 on economic activity. This paper asseses the expected drag on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012604751

Pension Reform in Belgium

International Monetary Fund - 1996

This paper reviews the financial implications of aging for the pension system in Belgium during 1995-2050. Our simulations indicate a strong rise in pension expenditure over the next half century, as is the case in other industrialized countries. In Belgium, the problem is particularly acute in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396528

Social Security, Demographic Trends, and the Federal Budget

International Monetary Fund - 1990

This paper considers the implications of the prospective aging of the U.S. population for the social security system and concludes that the large and growing cashflow surpluses of the social security trust funds should be saved to help insulate living stands against this change. A number of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396207

French Public Finances : Modeling Long-Term Prospects and Reform Options

Habermeier, Karl Friedrich - 1998

Over the coming decades, demographic developments will lead to a significant increase in public outlays on pensions and health care, relative to national income. This study extends earlier work by considering the adverse effects of taxation on the determinants of economic growth -- in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400678

Dynamiccs of Asian Savings : Role of Growth and Age Structure

International Monetary Fund - 1988

This paper shows how growth and demography, two important determinants of the savings rate in the life-cycle approach, explain a large part of the diversity in savings behavior in Asia across eight countries as well as over time. Inflation and adverse movements in the terms of trade are found to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014396475

Economic Implications of China's Demographics in the 21st Century

Cheng, Kevin C. - 2003

This study assesses the economic implications of China''s changing population in the 21st century using a numerical general equilibrium model. The simulations show that lower fertility rates yield lower saving rates. Since lower fertility rates reduce the future supply of labor, capital will...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404019

Authorities' fiscal forecasts in Latin America : are they optimistic?

Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Werner, … - 2021

documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most … terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth … and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612338

Predicting fiscal crises

Cerovic, Svetlana; Gerling, Kerstin; Hodge, Andrew; … - 2018

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011905898

The impact of international migration on inclusive growth : a review

Koczan, Zsoka; Peri, Giovanni; Pinat, Magali; Rozhkov, … - 2021

International migration is an important channel of material improvement for individuals and their offspring. The movement of people across country borders, especially from less developed to richer countries, has a substantial impact in several dimensions. First, it affects the migrants...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518988

Fiscal Impulses and their Fiscal Impact

Chand, Sheetal K. - 1992

Fiscal impulse measures are used in the WEO and elsewhere to indicate the changing impact of the budget on the economy. Such measures are intended to provide more accurate indications of whether the budget is becoming more or less expansionary than would just observing moments in the actual...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395766

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