The paper argues that assets produced under build-own-operate-transfer (BOOT) schemes-under which public infrastructure assets are legally owned and operated for a defined period by the private corporation that constructs them, before being transferred to the government- should be treated in...

Countries compiling quarterly estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) often use alternative approaches simultaneously. This may result in the publication of different measures of quarterly GDP and discrepancies between these measures. Such discrepancies are unavoidable, unless reconciliation...

In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we...

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and...

We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are presented over 1991 to 2015. Strengths and weaknesses of these methods are assessed and a...

A growth accounting exercise is conducted for 88 countries for 1960-94 to examine the source of cross-country differences in total factor productivity (TFP) levels. Two differences distinguish this analysis from that of the related literature. First, the critical technology parameter—the share...

This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and stress testing financial systems. The choice of techniques was guided by their...

The paper estimates export demand elasticities for a large number of developing and developed countries, using time-series techniques that account for the nonstationarity in the data. The average long-run price and income elasticities are found to be approximately -1 and 1.5, respectively. Thus,...

The paper provides estimates of an error-correction model of the demand for narrow money (M1) and broad money (M2) in Mozambique. In addition, it assesses whether the rapid growth in money balances during 1996–97 represents a structural break or can be associated with the rapidly expanding...