Brandao Marques, Luis; Chen, Qianying; Raddatz, Claudio E. - 2019
We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters … credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)'s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and … systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a …