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Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011748782
We undertake an extended discussion of the latest developments about the existing and new estimation methods of the shadow economy. New results on the shadow economy for 158 countries all over the world are presented over 1991 to 2015. Strengths and weaknesses of these methods are assessed and a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799256
We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112326
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009486263
-level records covering the whole universe of French firms. The quasi-random assignment of judges to cases reveals that judge bias … find that the uncertainty associated with the actual dispersion of judge bias is small and has a non-significant impact on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012518274
show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012667445
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392484
IFC as the debt bias would shrink. However, when other considerations eclipse competence and give the incumbent a strong … electoral advantage or disadvantage, setting up an IFC may be counterproductive as the debt bias would increase. If the … bias if voters care sufficiently about policymakers' competence; (ii) not all political environments are conducive to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799662
We define the plutocratic bias as the difference between inflation measured according to the current official CPI and a … democratic index in which all households receive the same weight. We estimate that during the 1990s the plutocratic bias in Spain … mean absolute bias is significantly larger, 0.090. We can explain most of the oscillations experimented by the plutocratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400237
The recent Boskin Commission Report (1996) underscores a significant upward bias in CPI measurement in the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401311