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Forecasting social unrest : a machine learning approach
Redl, Chris; Hlatshwayo, Sandile - 2021
We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796240
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Predicting fiscal crises
Cerovic, Svetlana; Gerling, Kerstin; Hodge, Andrew; … - 2018
This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011905898
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Forecasts in times of crises
Eicher, Theo S.; Kuenzel, David J.; Papageorgiou, Chris; … - 2018
Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932572
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Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts
Kisinbay, Turgut - 2006
How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400376
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Are Currency Crises Predictable? : A Test
Pattillo, Catherine A. - 1998
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400560
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A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises
Flood, Robert P. - 2010
Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014397444
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Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting : What Can We Expect?
Meredith, Guy - 2003
The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014399684
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Are Currency Crises Predictable?
Valdés, Rodrigo O. - 1997
This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403309
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Do Forecasters Believe in Okun’s Law? : An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts
Ball, Laurence M. - 2014
This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014394299
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715551