-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies … that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1 …) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally …

Inflation persistence is sometimes defined as the tendency for price shocks to push the inflation rate away from its … steady state—including an inflation target—for a prolonged period. Persistence is important because it affects the output … costs of lowering inflation back to the target, often described as the “sacrifice ratio”. In this paper I use inflation …

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been … remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s … observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the …

This paper focuses on the output costs of disinflation. A model of inflation with both forward and backward elements … seems to characterize reality. Such an inflation model is estimated using data for industrial countries, and the output … is considered. An alternative, more credible policy may be to announce an exchange rate peg to a low inflation currency …

In this paper we study the dynamics of inflation in Macedonia, provide three forecasting tools and draw some policy … conclusions from the quantitative results. We explore three forecasting methods for inflation. We use a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM … New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for a more structural model of inflation. The NKPC shows a significant effect of …

variability over a prolonged period of time, against a background of high inflation. Convergence toward international relative and …

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession …. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation … by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the …