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Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
Rebei, Nooman; Sbia, Rashid - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251290
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The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi - 2015
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445835
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World Crude Oil Markets : Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock
Krichene, Noureddine - 2006
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model … interest rates led to high oil price volatility in 2005. Data shows that world economic growth and price stability require …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400520
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Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices
Pant, Malika - 2010
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403156
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715551
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Rethinking fiscal policy in oil-exporting countries
Mirzoev, Tokhir; Zhu, Ling - 2019
We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece-the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)-is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or long-term sustainability in the presence of uncertainty. Policies to achieve these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021900
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Macroeconomic effects of reforms on three diverse oil exporters : Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK
Beidas-Strom, Samya; Lorusso, Marco - 2019
We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012112123
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Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices
Kumar, Manmohan S. - 1991
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395895
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Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries
Gupta, Sanjeev - 2002
This paper discusses issues relating to the domestic pricing of petroleum in oil-producing countries. It finds that in … implicit subsidies that equaled 3.0 percent of GDP, on average, in 1999. Moreover, the paper argues, these petroleum subsidies …-and also procyclical, complicating macroeconomic management. Nonetheless, the elimination of petroleum subsidies is often …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401649
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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations
Unalmis, Deren - 2009
framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402212